AI Godfather Geoffrey Hinton Raises The Odds Of AI-Driven Human Extinction From 10% To 20%

In 2024, artificial intelligence has accelerated to new heights, transforming daily interactions, industries and potential advancements. Yet, this advancement has always faced certain challenges, especially that of balancing AI’s ethical considerations with profit-making.

Warnings by various AI ethicists, researchers and business leaders spotlight the risks posed by unchecked AI innovation. With governments and corporations locked in to lead the AI race, we’re already witnessing questionable AI practices, including using AI to extract personal details, video scraping, AI bots for creating deepfakes and more.

Now, Professor Geoffrey Hinton, often called the "Godfather of AI," has revealed his thoughts about how dangerous unethically developed AI could be to humanity's existence. He famously resigned from Google in 2024 to speak out about the potential dangers of AI and to warn the public about the lack of AI regulation.

So, what did the Godfather of AI say and why has his opinion rattled people?

Let’s explore!

What Did Geoffrey Hinton Say?

Source

In an interview with the BBC Radio 4 show, Hinton revised the odds of AI wiping out humans within the next three decades. He has often spoken about artificial intelligence’s potential to cause humanity's end, with Hinton resigning from Google to express his concerns about uncontrolled AI development freely.

He said, "Not really, 10 to 20 [percent]," in the interview when asked if his mind had changed. This comment shows that the top AI expert had raised his former estimate of a 10% chance of AI wiping out humanity to 20%, signaling how worried he is about AI's reckless development.

Talking about AI's potential to be smarter than humans, he used an analogy comparing humanity’s future position relative to AI as that of a three-year-old trying to control an adult. He emphasized how difficult it would become for humans to manage systems vastly more intelligent than themselves.

Hinton stated that historically, "less intelligent" entities seldom control "more intelligent" ones. While most experts think AI would take over in decades, Hinton worries that it could happen much sooner, maybe within 20-30 years.

Hinton has always pushed for tight regulatory frameworks to ensure the responsible development of AI. He also stresses that leaving this up to profit-driven AI corporations is not enough – especially calling out OpenAI for its lax AI regulations.

So, what did Geoffrey Hinton say about OpenAI?

What Does Hinton’s Opinion Mean For AI Leadership?

Hinton spoke about OpenAI's recent internal problems, such as the firing of CEO Sam Altman and disbanding of AI safety teams. He praised Ilya Sutskever, one of his former students, for putting AI safety first when he fired Sam Altman. "I am particularly proud of the fact that one of my students fired Sam Altman," Hinton said in October 2024.

Hinton said that he didn't like how OpenAI's focus had shifted under Altman, with the AI company going from focusing on AI safety to simply making more money. He described this scenario as "very unfortunate" and reiterated the need for companies like OpenAI to align their objectives with long-term AI safety.

In fact, Hinton’s plea for robust, global regulatory measures to keep AI development in check has gained traction among international bodies such as the United Nations’ AI Advisory Body. So, what does Hinton say about the future of AI?

What Do Hinton’s Warnings Mean For Humanity?

Hinton's new odds of AI-led human extinction at 20% show how critical it is to strictly regulate AI development with moral guidelines in place. His suggestions for policymakers, tech leaders and other authorities to move quickly to lower risks has not yet born fruit.

Hinton's work, like many others, supports efforts around the globe to ensure AI technologies are created and used in a responsible way. So, his warnings come as a much-needed advisory amid the heating global AI race, with nations like China rapidly advancing their AI capabilities. Chinese technology companies such as Alibaba and DeepSeek are using open-source models and large language models to take on American leaders, leading to reckless AI innovation.

As development of AI hastens, it brings to light a scenario where those competing to be the leader of this game-changing technology can inevitably cause much-greater damage.

Conclusion

As AI keeps improving, finding the right balance between innovation and ethics will be of major consequence. Hinton's belief’s make it clear that AI researchers, business leaders and governments need to work together to ensure sustainable development of AI technologies. His recent statement shows how important it is to set up a global framework for AI regulation, so that it can be used without endangering people.

Do you think Geoffrey Hinton’s revised warnings should prompt immediate regulatory action? Can reckless AI development really become the cause of human extinction?

Let us know in the comments below!

First published on Mon, Dec 30, 2024

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Geoffrey Hinton AI Risks Artificial Intelligence Safety AI Extinction Odds OpenAI Leadership AI Development Concerns AI Governance Global AI Race Artificial Intelligence (AI)

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